The sample · free · the real thing
It told the founder $1,000, not $7,000.
On September 23, 2026 I put my own company — Lesson of the Day PBC, five years of work, a plan that said $7,000 a month — through the complete Honest Number workflow. This is the deliverable, unedited except where it named my family or my personal finances. It is the same document a customer receives.
The page is being published from the job folder now. The numbers below are already final.
What is in itThe same manifest every Honest Number ships with.
The Number≈ $1,000/month profit in month 12 (September 2027), against a $7,000 target; $7,000 a “2028 outcome on these lanes”.
Ground-truth tableSeventeen claims re-verified against live systems: printer pricing to the cent, shipping all-in, the real tool base ($530/month, not $316), the audience that actually reaches a product page.
Five plans, three judges, synthesisThe draft that carried the $7,700 book, and the ten load-bearing assumptions the judges pulled out of it.
Twenty refutersTwo per assumption, data lens and market lens. All ten refuted at medium or high confidence. The plan “does not argue with them”.
The final planWhat survives, in priority order; the offer ladder re-run at corrected costs; the gated upside ladder; kill gates with dates.
Verifier’s certificateNumbers reconcile, sources named, estimates labelled as estimates, family and finances anonymised.
Why give it away
Because you should see what a refuted assumption looks like before you pay to have yours refuted. And because a sample that flattered its author would be worthless as evidence. Mine did not.