Offer 1 of 3 · one-time

THE HONEST NUMBER

One monthly-profit figure for your business that survived twenty attempts to break it — and the full record of the attempts. If the number is smaller than you hoped, that is the product working.

You getA private tokenized page, a 12–25 page PDF and a files zip containing:

The NumberOne honest monthly-profit figure with its date, P10 / P50 / P90, and the three load-bearing assumptions it rests on.

Ground-truth tableEvery claim in your intake, verified or marked unverifiable, with its source.

Five plansIndependent plans from five lenses: operator, investor, skeptic, channel, unit economics.

Three scorecardsThree judges score the plans and name the assumptions everything depends on.

SynthesisOne plan built from what the judges kept.

Twenty refutersOne page each — ten from a data lens, ten from a market lens, two per assumption — with a verdict: Holds Weakened Refuted and the evidence.

The final planRewritten to fold every refuted assumption, with a week-by-week first 90 days and kill criteria.

Verifier’s certificateNumbers reconcile; every claim sourced or labelled; no invented facts; disclosure present; no third-party personal data. No certificate, no release.

One revisionWithin 14 days, with your corrections.

Who it is for

A founder, owner or operator carrying a number in their head — the one they told a partner, a spouse, a bank or themselves — who would rather learn now whether it holds. Solo businesses, small teams, side businesses about to become main ones, and anyone about to raise or borrow against a plan.

It is not for a business with no numbers at all. If you have no revenue, no costs and no customers yet, the ground-truth table will be mostly “unverifiable” and the refuters will have little to hold onto. Send it when there is something to test.

Timing

The 48-hour clock starts when you submit the intake form, not when you pay. Intake links stay valid for 14 days. If the deliverable is released more than 48 hours after your intake, you are refunded in full and still receive it when it is done.

Intake previewWhat you will be asked after payment. Prepare it now if you like; the real form is on your private link.

Preview · 15 questions · about 25 minutes

Business name
What you do, in one paragraphPlain words. Who pays you, for what, how often.
The number you want, and by whene.g. “$7,000 a month profit by March 2027”. This is the claim the workflow tests.
Revenue, last three monthsThree figures. Gross is fine; say if it is net.
Fixed monthly costsTools, rent, subscriptions, people. A list or a total.
Cash on hand
Products and prices, or a URL
Customers so farHow many, and who they are. Family and friends count, but say so.
Channels tried, and what happenedAds, outreach, marketplaces, content, partners — with the numbers you have.
Hours per week you can give this
Hard constraintsWhat you will not do: no paid ads, no hiring, no fundraising, no phone calls — whatever is true.
Files, up to fiveP&L, decks, plans, spreadsheets. PDF, CSV, XLSX, MD, TXT. 10 MB each.
What you would do with a “no”If the number comes back far below your target — what changes? The final plan is written for that answer.
Email for delivery
ConsentYou have read the disclosure and accept the terms, privacy and refund rules.

Nothing in the intake is used to train anything. Files and answers are purged 30 days after release.